Luxury Watch Market Soars Even as Tariffs Hit 39% August 7

Even as U.S. tariffs on Swiss watch imports are set to jump to 39% on August 7, up from 10%, and unit shipments have plummeted 44% since 2008, the global market for these luxury timepieces is projected to grow to nearly $100 billion by 2035. This defies conventional economics, revealing a luxury segment recalibrating its strategy. It shifts away from mass-market volume, prioritizing extreme value for an affluent clientele seemingly immune to rising costs and shrinking availability.

Swiss watch industry volumes have fallen dramatically to 14.6 million units in 2025, according to Hodinkee. Yet, the market's overall value and growth accelerate, particularly in the ultra-luxury segment. This isn't an accident; it's a deliberate strategy to cultivate exclusivity, effectively decoupling financial growth from physical output.

Companies now focus on high-margin, exclusive products to offset volume declines and rising costs. This suggests the luxury watch market will only consolidate power among a few elite brands, becoming even more inaccessible to average consumers.

The Resilient Ascent of Luxury Timepieces

The global Swiss watch market is projected to grow from USD 65.6 billion in 2025 to around USD 96.4 billion by 2035, according to Sphericalinsights. This robust financial outlook persists despite significant contractions in unit sales over the past two decades. Growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.93% from 2025 to 2035, the market proves uniquely resilient, even amidst global economic fluctuations. U.S. buyers alone imported approximately CHF 4.4 billion worth of Swiss watches in 2024, according to The Boca Raton Tribune. This substantial demand in key markets, coupled with increasing value per unit, fuels the sector's financial health, proving that for true luxury, scarcity often trumps accessibility.

Exclusivity Drives Growth: The Ultra-High End Dominates